Republican Fred Upton beat Democrat Don Cooney 58.8% to 38.6% in the MI-6 House race two weeks ago. In a year of major Democratic triumph, I find this inscrutable (and infuriating) for a district I consider moderate (PVI R+2 as of 2004), including cities like Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor. Upton won by a similar margin (61 to 38) 2 years ago.
Kalamazoo County went 59 to 39 for Obama, but Upton won the county 53.6% to 43.8%. How to explain this? Kalamazoo and MI-6 hate Bush but love Upton? The most obvious explanation, but facile, I think. Upton has been able to lay a “moderate” line, including a whole lot of campaign-inspired gibberish about opposing Bush and reaching across the aisle formerly featured on his Wikipedia page. His grandfather was one of the founders of the Whirlpool Corporation and he, among many other Uptons, is quite wealthy and is connected to the Chicago, St. Joseph, and Kalamazoo business class, as well as the DC lobbyist class, according to FEC reports.
Now, for his opposition: lackluster, to say the least. In 2002, he was against state pol Christine Gregoire Gary Giguere and dispatched her 69 to 29. 2004, St. Joseph art dealer Scott Elliott 68 to 32; 2006, pastor, banker, and playwright Kim Clark 61 to 38. This year, WMU social work professor Don Cooney, who served on the city commission for several years, raised only $58,000 (as of Sept 30) to Upton’s $1.2 million.
Sacrificial lamb much? But you can see as well as I can that Upton’s margin is getting smaller. Kalamazoo is becoming bluer, and with the ongoing immigration to Southwest Michigan, it wouldn’t surprise me if much of the rest of the district were doing the same.
But I can’t tell because the data availability is pretty crappy. For some reason Kalamazoo County doesn’t host its own election results and the city’s precinct map is a crappy pdf. Don’t get me started on the other counties. I’m working on it — this just might become a cause.
UPDATE: Covert Township was the only place in Van Buren County where Cooney beat Upton.
Cooney held his own in Berrien County, but gave up a LOT of potential in Benton Harbor, where turnout was only about 36%, and even all the registered voters were probably only half the eligible population.
The only place Cooney won in Cass County (which went for Obama) was the city of Dowagiac.
Hey Dale-
Sorry about not responding to your email about Philly-I was in DC for the weekend that you were in town-can you guess why I was there?:)
Anyway, I liked your post on the 6th district. I think in the end the only thing that will get Fred out of this seat is redistricting. Michigan is losing a seat in 2011, and if one merged the coastline counties of the 6th with Ottawa County, you could create a very conservative district that would force the current 2nd District Republican (Pete Hoekstra or whoever replaces him) to run off against Upton. The western portions of the 6th would be added to the 7th district to create a more friendly Dem seat for Mark Schaurer.
Hope all is well!